Stamp duty
Moira DEEMING (Western Metropolitan) (14:24): (1393) My question is for the Treasurer. Stamp duty is one of Victoria’s biggest sources of revenue. The 2026–27 budget noted that stamp duty revenue is expected to drop slightly, from $10.6 billion to $10 billion because fewer houses are changing hands. After federal tax changes and rate hikes, industry analysts have reported that sales volumes are tracking 10 per cent lower than a year ago, and some market estimates put the fall at 20 to 30 per cent. If that continues, our Treasury could face an additional $2.5 billion revenue shortfall or more. My question is: what steps are you as Treasurer taking to measure and respond to the significant expected decline in stamp duty revenue in Victoria?
Jaclyn SYMES (Northern Victoria – Treasurer, Minister for Industrial Relations, Minister for Development Victoria and Precincts) (14:25): Mrs Deeming, thank you so much for your question. I would be more than happy to take you through some of the sensitivity analysis that was in this year’s budget, because of course Treasury monitor and forecast these things on a continual basis. That is what people in the department do. There has been, as you have identified, an expected downturn in the amount of stamp duty that we are expecting to receive next financial year. In my experience Treasury are quite conservative in these matters, so there is a significant recognition of that, but also a sensitivity analysis in budget paper 4, I think, will explain some of these things in a worst-case scenario and best-case scenario. So to your exact question: absolutely, this is something that Treasury monitor and brief me regularly on.
Moira DEEMING (Western Metropolitan) (14:26): Obviously our budget came out in May and then Chalmers introduced the changes after that. But in June the New South Wales government publicly revised their stamp duty revenue expectations by nearly $6 billion over the four years in response to those federal tax changes. In terms of a formal review, based on those changes that are expected, will Treasury undertake a formal review of its stamp duty forecasts, and if so, when will that be published?