Tuesday, 27 May 2025

Economic policy

Tim RICHARDSON (Mordialloc) (16:16): I rise to grieve on behalf of Victorians, if the Liberal–National coalition were to get into government, the savage cutbacks in programs like the SEC and in jobs, infrastructure, health care, housing and transport investment. I do so fortunately on the back of the Shadow Treasurer’s speech today. It was an interesting journey to hear the Shadow Treasurer walk us through what could be described as probably a few themes. I do not think anyone needed a microphone for that performance. It was interesting just to contrast it with the lines and messaging of the Nationals leader, who was I think a little bit more on message with the lines that he went out first with. But there was an opening of the true values, morals and ethics of those opposite, and it was clear as day that when you talk about taking back revenue without any additional sources then you are talking about cuts in the billions of dollars for Victorians. It was quite clear. I sat here for a long time – Speaker, I am not sure if you were in the chair at the time as well – and I was looking around the gallery. It thinned out a bit, people were checking their phones and there was a bit of distraction. There was a bit of umming and ahhing; it went for I think nearly 40 minutes. You really should have that on a timer. I do not know if that should be the way to go in the future. But when the press start walking off halfway through, I think you know you have gone a bit too far – you have run around the garden path on your message.

I know there is a little bit of banter between these two, maybe a bit of rivalry – it was not as clean and crisp as the 7-minute performance of the member for Sandringham in reply. They are a bit more grabby. I think there was a lot more content. Whether there was a lot more depth is arguable. But when you boil down what was actually said, it was that billions of dollars would be taken away from revenue, and there was no discussion of or attempt to describe how that would be filled. And what does that look like? That looks like savage cuts to Victorian jobs and services, the likes of which we never would see. They would make the shadow minister at the table blush – and there was the campaign that we put out during 2022, the ‘cuts guy’. The member for Brighton is in a different stratosphere.

We know the story was given away by members in the other place who talked about wanting to make substantial cuts to the Victorian community – savage cuts to frontline services. We see time and time again that past behaviour is an indication of future outcomes. We saw that with the federal government and the Labor and Liberal–National campaigns federally; we did not hear one discussion around how in the budget federally then opposition leader Peter Dutton would find $650 billion for his nuclear hoax. We saw none of that detail, and I think the same thing is happening here and in the next 79 weeks, leading up to the Victorian election. The Shadow Treasurer does not think that he needs to describe to the Victorian people what services would be impacted into the future when you take billions out of revenue.

I want to describe a few things, because the Shadow Treasurer went on a bit of a rant. It was an interesting sort of performance. It narrated an alternative universe to the reality we face. The Shadow Treasurer talked about there being no business investment, talking down Victoria. I get that it is in the Liberal–Nationals’ interest to talk down the state; they want to obviously present a scenario that enhances their political fortunes. But when the reality is there has been 3.7 per cent business investment growth in Victoria over the year to December 2024 compared to a 1.3 per cent decline in the rest of Australia, the narrative does not stack up.

When you have Victoria’s record share of the overall economic output in the latest financial year, 2023–24, the narrative does not stack up. I then thought, ‘Well, has the Shadow Treasurer taken a pandemic-level speech and brought it into this chamber, dressing it up in 2025?’ It just felt completely underdone. And when the five points that he would have liked to have articulated were referenced 10 times, I realised that the 40-minute speech actually only had three minutes of content. It showed once again that this is the muscle memory of those opposite. They are not interested in the business of government, and they are not interested in policy development. Today was another classic example: oppose everything, talk down the state and hope that you limp in without doing any work on the policy and those outcomes.

The other thing that was put forward was around the debt levels that have been put forward. I keep reminding those opposite, because it does not stack up when we get to the credibility of discussion around economic performance, that their heroes under the Morrison, Turnbull and Abbott governments took debt towards $1 trillion. It was over 30 per cent of GDP. The member for Mornington probably saw the budget papers during that time in estimates hearings. It took national debt as a proportion of the Victorian economy to substantially more than where Victoria is. We are the only jurisdiction that has a debt repayment strategy over five different points. So I thought maybe there would be a little nuance – maybe the Shadow Treasurer would take the time to reference that, go through that and scrutinise that. There was no attempt whatsoever, and it just shows.

This person was the hero of the member for Sandringham back in the day: Dom Perrottet, the former New South Wales Premier. He has been rolled out every now and then to fundraisers: ‘Let’s get Dom along.’ He is a good speaker, he is very eloquent and he obviously has a wonderful bipartisan charm with Chris Minns up there. He has even done some fundraising for the member for Sandringham, who I think went over some of his material and had a look. But what did Dom Perrottet say about cost escalations and what they would describe as overruns? With a building boom in the new infrastructure of Australia’s eastern coast, pitting states against each other, Premier Dom Perrottet said at the time it was okay if costs increased from the estimations at the start of projects.

We are talking increases and that’s not unique to NSW – it’s happening right across the eastern seaboard … We have a duty to make sure we get our projects built that are value for taxpayers, but ultimately, we’ve got to keep going.

John Mullahy interjected.

Tim RICHARDSON: ‘Is Dom, is good,’ as the member for Glen Waverley nicely chimes in. That is a very good point. If you are running him out as a hero – and that narrative was put forward by someone who was not only Treasurer for a period of time but Premier – then you cannot walk back these major projects. You cannot walk back the infrastructure needs of tomorrow and the investments that are required.

When you hear the Shadow Treasurer and the Leader of the Opposition talk about cutting major projects and cutting massive projects like the SEC, there is a consequence to that. There are tens of thousands of jobs on the line with those policies – and the economic prosperity of our state and our future. That is what is at stake as we go forward in the next 79 weeks: a record level of cuts to services, with a frontline service impact that would be unprecedented. The question that should have been asked of the Shadow Treasurer today in that waffly 40-minute rant is: what are the revenue sources they would try to attract? Because if they are not going to prop that up in the tens of billions over the forward estimates that they suggest that they are finding, we know what that means. The impact will be on nurses, it will be on teachers, it will be on child protection workers and it will be on people helping to build our state in housing and in mental health and wellbeing. It will mean substantial impacts over the forward estimates, and we know that that will have a dire impact on the confidence and economics of our state. When the Shadow Treasurer talks about confidence and the impact on confidence, nothing is more detrimental to confidence than austerity. Where did we see that? We saw that with the Abbott and Hockey journey. Remember them out the back in Canberra? They were sat there so joyous after they tore shreds through services federally. We saw the then federal opposition leader Peter Dutton say that he would take nearly 40,000 jobs out of the public service. That was the plan that was put forward federally, which was substantially rejected.

Then they walked that back under panic, and we can see that there is a bit of policy panic from time to time from those opposite, where they walk back. I must say, though, the Shadow Treasurer and Leader of the Opposition have not walked back their work from home policy; in fact they have doubled down on that. So that whole impact on communities, the gendered nature of that policy and how that was resoundingly rejected – that is still Liberal–National policy going forward.

There is another important point that comes to those opposite: if they want to be seen seriously to be able to govern Victoria, they have got to be able to govern themselves, and they are in utter turmoil at the moment. The media was out the back here. I rolled in for a chat today with a couple of colleagues, and I do not normally get in at 7, but I have never seen the media roll up that early. I thought, ‘What’s going on?’ Well, they were catching Liberals – not Nationals but Liberals – going in, wondering what on earth they were doing in their party room at 7:45. The craziness of that being cancelled, put off – I do not know, the member for Bulleen or the member for Mornington might be able to give some insights into what on earth all the flurry was. But they are so divided, so bitter and twisted towards each other – they cannot even govern their own party room, cannot even have a sense of solidarity – how on earth could this mob ever be trusted to govern themselves?

We see this play out. There are fault lines left, right and centre. We know the junior coalition party in the Nationals is carrying the team at the moment with the performances put forward. I must say, though, there was barely a Liberal in here when the Nationals leader gave his budget speech. It was extraordinary not to see the solidarity on the agreement. And we see nationally how they play out now with the destruction of the coalition agreement. But it matters, because they are not an effective functioning opposition when they are too busy fighting each other, when they hate themselves more than they hate the Labor Party. You can see some of the challenges that we face in an effective opposition holding us to account.

These are the choices and the things that will be put forward to Victorians over the coming months as we head towards the state election in 2026. What are the cuts that the Shadow Treasurer proposes, who has come in here, who has talked down the Victorian economy, who has talked down business investment, even though, if he had got past chapter one of the second budget paper, he would have seen that there is economic growth and prosperity that is outstripping the nation? How lazy to come in here and not detail them. At least the member for Sandringham would give it a go and have his slogans lined up. It was very disappointing. I thought we would get an A-1 performance. But what cuts will they make? The media and Victorians want to know what that would look to –

Chris Crewther interjected.

Tim RICHARDSON: Well, and the shadow – he should be a shadow. He was up in fed for a bit – give him a break. The member for Mornington says, ‘We’ll cut taxes.’ All right, we will cut taxes there. Well, how will you plug the revenue holes? Because I counted about $10 billion.

Chris Crewther interjected.

Tim RICHARDSON: Grow the economy. Well, I will tell you, he is on the hook here – you know, when they jump on the hook themselves. I will go to the playbook here. On the budget paper – and I am not sure if you have had a chance to see this, member for Mornington – we are outstripping the nation on business growth. It is actually foot to the floor. We are in sixth gear going absolute hell for leather. We have got 3.7 per cent business growth. Just go past the six dot points that the Shadow Treasurer gave everyone on that side to run out with in their speeches or their member statements or their budget contributions. Look a little bit further into the detail, and you will see that. The notion to grow the economy – the budget is now over $100 billion. When we came into government in 2014, guess what it was – it was $43 billion. So we are growing the economy. It was $43 billion under Napthine and Baillieu.

Members interjecting.

Tim RICHARDSON: It would be more under them, they say. Well, they did not build anything during that time. Remember when they had the stickers at Southern Cross on the airport rail, and remember those tourists that came out of Southern Cross? Maybe they had come up from Geelong or Avalon and thinking, ‘You know what, I’ve got to get to Tullamarine for my flight.’ They saw the stickers at Southern Cross on the ground, and they went walking towards the where the rail line would have been. That was their infrastructure contribution; that was Baillieu–Napthine. It does not stack up, member for Mornington, it does not stack up.

Those opposite have not built a thing. All they have built is division. All they have built is a party room that is more divided than we have ever seen before, at risk of fault lines that could only be matched by the absolute, utter turmoil that the Liberal–Nationals are in at the moment. I mean, they are not in coalition. I have been watching closely the body language between the Leader of the Opposition and the Leader of the Nationals, because it must be awkward. You have got the leader, Littleproud, who has got probably four weeks until Barnaby Joyce comes back. You have got then the leader of the Liberal Party at the moment, Sussan Ley, who has been treated utterly appallingly by fellow Liberals and Nationals. But it goes to the fundamentals: when you cannot get your house in order, when you cannot govern yourselves, you can never govern the nation.

When you cannot govern yourselves and your party room and you are busy spending time down on Queen Street suing the hell out of each other rather than governing for Victorians here in this place, that is what people will see: a divided rabble. You can see that they have been distracted. I can give the Shadow Treasurer some leeway: maybe there has been a little bit of distraction around how much turmoil has been in there, like trying to keep the show together, on the phones, all the factional chats and everything. All I could see was a $15 billion hole per annum that was put forward by the Shadow Treasurer, and the only thing that that would mean is a reduction in expenditure, which he criticised consistently, wanting a smaller government, which means Victorians would pay the price. Victorians would pay the price for the cuts to the services they see, the teachers they rely on, the nurses that care for them each and every day, the essential workers that front up time and time again and the people on building projects helping to build the future. They are the cuts and consequences and job losses that will hit the livelihoods of Victorians like we have never seen before. That is the Shadow Treasurer and Leader of the Opposition’s playbook.