Wednesday, 11 May 2022

Public Accounts and Estimates Committee

Report on the 2021–22 Budget Estimates

Mr ANGUS (Forest Hill) (15:07): I am pleased to rise to make a contribution on the Report on the 2021–22 Budget Estimates, which was tabled in October 2021 in this place. I note that it contains 115 findings and 47 recommendations. I have spoken on this before, and I just want to finish my contribution in relation to it. I do that by turning to page 9 of the report and looking at finding 4, which says:

The Government’s third and fourth step of the fiscal strategy include returning to operating surplus and stabilising debt levels. However, the 2021–22 Budget does not provide a timeline nor a numerical objective for these targets.

That is quite appropriate inasmuch as since I last spoke on this report we have received the state budget, which shows us what a disastrous financial position the state is in and the fact that it is very clear that this government has got no intention at all of returning this state to surplus—I was going to say any time soon, but it is certainly any time at all. Stabilising debt levels? They do not know what that means. It is just going to continue on the upward projection for the immediate future and no doubt beyond. If we turn to page 11, we can see the heading for section 2.3 there, ‘Economic outlook for 2021–22’. It goes into a range of different matters. In particular on page 12 it talks about finding 7. That says:

In 2020, Victoria’s household disposable income per capita and gross state product per capita were weaker than other states and territories.

I suppose what I want to say in relation to that is that that is telling Victorians what we already knew. We already knew that things were not going well and that we were having problems from a state perspective, and that has been captured there by the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee.

Over on the next page, under ‘Economic outlook’, 2.3.2 goes into various statistics, and we will be able to analyse those estimates with the current budget figures. Like most Labor estimates, they will be seen to be miles away from reality and basically just best guesses. That is not something that is helpful to any Victorians at all.

Page 14 has finding 9. That talks about the budget forecasting zero to moderate population growth in 2020–21 and over the next three years. It goes on to say:

As population growth has been a significant driver of economic growth in Victoria prior to the COVID‑19 pandemic, the slower population growth could slow Victoria’s economic recovery.

I think that is a pretty big understatement because we now know people are leaving the state of Victoria in droves. That has got massive economic implications for the state. I, probably like most local members, have been contacted by numerous families who have rung to let me know they are indeed taking their whole family and relocating out of Victoria because they can no longer stand being in the state that has had the harshest requirements in relation to the COVID-19 situation and of course the world’s longest lockdown. So it has been a disaster in every particular way you want to look at it.

Page 15 talks about the revenue measures and talks about the taxation revenue being $26.6 billion and goes into the various components of that, which were highlighted again in the most recent state budget. We have got a huge reliance on property taxes, and I have spoken in this place before about that and how fraught that is with danger. It goes on and talks about the government introducing several new revenue initiatives. We have now seen those quantified in the current budget, but we can see the estimates in this particular budget too.

I conclude by looking at, under the expenditure side, page 18, subpoint 2.6. It says in part that:

Employee expenses are the largest driver of general government sector expenditure, accounting for approximately 37% of total expenses in 2021–22.

Basically the point there—and you can see this in the graph at figure 2.5 on page 19—is it shows that the estimates that have been given in the past in relation to wages growth are nowhere near reality. The document here actually shows a decrease, and of course that is just completely delusional under this government, and we will soon see that. We have seen it in the budget that came out last week, and we will see it at all stages in the future as well. The government has no control over wages, and that is just there for all Victorians to see. So I commend the report to members. It does contain some very interesting information.